Yesterday, the president met with James Soong, the head of the People First Party – and released a 10-point agreement document.

I can’t think of a more unlikely partnership than between Chen Shui-bian and James Soong. Back in March last year, it was generally thought that the PFP were the main people behind all the demonstrations protesting the presidential election; you’d have thought all the ranting by Soong about being robbed and ‘storming the presidential palace’ would have bought him an enemy for life in Chen (not to mention Soong’s previous history as head of the GIO).

However, once the DPP failed to get a majority in the legislature last December (with or without the help of the TSU), it became clear that Chen’s options were:

• Spend the next 4 years in the same impasse as the previous 4 years – where the legislature blocks almost everything the president sends them.
• Cut a deal.

Party loyalty is strong in Taiwan, so the chances of getting a few disgruntled KMT legislators to jump ship were pretty minimal (although, who knows what might happen if the KMT leadership battle turns ugly?), which leaves the PFP as the only option. There had been rumours and plans for this meeting for a while – but most people were pretty sceptical that anything would come of it; from that perspective, the outcome today is a success.

So what was in the joint statement?
Not a lot new really. It addressed Cross-strait peace (where the president reiterated his promise not to declare independence, and both men agreed that any change needed consent of the Taiwanese people), National security (a need for a strong defense – but without getting into an arms race), and ethnic harmony (why can’t we all just be friends?); in fact, the only surprising thing was that the two men could meet, talk and agree on anything.

So, what happens next?
Clearly, there is still a big idealogical gap between the two men about the eventual goal for Taiwan – but the main point of this agreement is that they can put aside those differences, and then work together on less controversial issues. If you assume that no significant progress will be made on reunification/independence over the next 3 years, there are several areas where (if they step carefully) the DPP and the PFP could work together:

• Economic links with China: Everyone wants this (most notably direct links) – but the issue is how to negotiate with the PRC. The mainland is likely to be much more happy to talk with Soong than with Chen
• Military reform: The hot topic recently has been the arms budget from the US, which the PFP has opposed (but might compromise on if cut back slightly). Apart from this, there is a general consensus on a need to reform the military, and to rethink (i.e. reduce) national service requirements
• Education reform: There will be big arguments between the two parties about history reform (Taiwanese vs Chinese history), and language (‘local’ languages vs. Mandarin), but again there are plenty of other areas which could be addressed.
• The Economy: There doesn’t seem to be any idealogical differences between the two parties on this area.

Both parties have plenty to gain by cooperating on these areas (the DPP need to get rid of the impression that they are incompetent and ineffective in running the country, while the PFP could reinvent themselves as the ‘pan-Blues who get things done’). However, politicians in both parties need to get over a very ingrained animosity to each other before anything happens.

So, we’re not ushering in a period of sunshine and progress in Taiwan just yet. At best, it’s the start of a very stormy relationship. At worst, it’s another doomed attempt to get anything at all done.