Yesterday was election day for the National Assembly in Taiwan. The two most important figures were: 83% of people voted for parties supporting constitutional reform, while turnout was just over 23%. The low turnout was not a surprise (especially given the atrocious weather yesterday), while the high support rate for constitutional reform was very good news. It means that the constitutional reform package (described here) is almost certain to be passed, which is a major step forward for politics in Taiwan.

A loss for the smaller parties

The two mainstream parties were the main ‘winners’ of the election: the DPP with 42% and the KMT with 38% of the vote. The TSU and PFP parties got 7% and 6% respectively – which must call into doubt their long term futures; although part of the reason for their low polling was their position on this election (why would anyone vote for parties opposing much needed reform?), the low turnout should have worked to their advantage – moderate voters (i.e. the ones who didn’t turn up yesterday) tend to vote for the two big parties. The TSU are claiming a success, because they displaced the PFP as the 3rd biggest party – but the truth is simply that the PFP support collapsed more than the TSUs.

Nothing to do with trips to China and President Chen’s response

The standard newspaper take on this election was that it would be a virtual referendum on the KMT & PFP trips to the mainland, and President Chen Shui Bian’s response. Here are 10 reasons why this was never the case:

The issues

1. This election was about constitutional reform – which had nothing to do with the relationship with China, or the recent trips
2. The two main parties at odds over the recent trips (the DPP & KMT) held exactly the same position on this election (supporting constitutional reform), making it hard to vote for/against links with China.
3. The two parties that visited China (the KMT & PFP) held diametrically opposite positions on this election, making it impossible to vote ‘for’ those trips.

The DPP is not the same as Chen Shui Bian

4. Each ballot allowed 1 vote for a political party – not for/against the government or president
5. Chen is no longer the chairman of the DPP, and does not control DPP policy – so a vote for the DPP is not a vote for Chen Shui Bian
6. Chen’s position on several issues has been markedly different to that of a lot of DPP politicians lately (in particular, his response to the Lien/Soong trips to China was a lot milder than the DPPs). His influence with party members is probably weaker now than at any time in the DPPs history. There are plenty of staunch DPP voters who disapprove of Chen’s recent actions.

The campaigining and electorate

7. The different parties campaigned in very different ways for this election – affecting the results. The DPP campaigned on the issues, the KMTs campaign was based on Lien Chan’s ‘peace trip’ to China, while the TSU & PFP hardly campaigned at all
8. Only 23% of the electorate voted – meaning that moderate voters (who may have altered their opinions on the different parties over the China trips) were hardly represented at all
9. There are opinion polls almost every day in Taiwan. Why would the electorate of Taiwan use an election about one issue to feedback to the government on a completely separate issue?
10. The main news story in the last week has not been James Soong’s trip to China, nor fallout from Lien Chan’s visit, nor reaction from the government to these trips. The main news story has been about the suicide of a Taiwanese ‘media personality’; while the China trips have been big news, they have not been the earth-shattering events for Taiwan that some international newspapers have made out