The election for the next KMT chairman has taken a back seat in recent weeks to visits to China and National Assembly elections. However, with Ma Ying-jeou starting his signature drive today, there have been some interesting developments, and there’s still one big question hanging over it all.

Voting requirements settled

The issue of who will be allowed to vote was finally settled by the KMT central standing committee:

Wang wanted to enable all members to vote, while the Chinese-born mayor insisted the eligibility be awarded to only those who have paid their membership dues in full.

According to Lien’s compromise, the Kuomintang would continue urging all those members with dues in arrears to make them up before July 16 but anyone whose party rights have not been suspended on or before that day can vote.

That means all Kuomintang members are qualified, if no suspension is effected. One of the party rights is that of election.

The fact that virtually all the 1 million KMT members will be allowed to vote is a big win for Wang Jin-pyng; the general consensus is that Wang is more popular among the ‘rank-and-file’ members, while Ma Ying-jeou is more popular with the older voters (who don’t pay membership dues, so were always going to be eligible to vote). Allowing everyone to vote seems to have made Wang the favourite, except for one open issue …

Will Lien run?

The big question hanging over this race is “what will Lien Chan do?”. Although he has repeatedly said he’s not really interested in running again, the effect of each of those statements has been to increase the chorus of loyal KMT supporter calling for him to run to ‘ensure party unity’. The two contenders have been forced to do a delicate dance to show their loyalty to Lien while trying to replace him; again Wang has won this competition by saying categorically that he will withdraw from the race if Lien decides to run.

Ma, however, has tried to suggest that Lien should be given an honorary chairmanship, in recognition of the significant contributions that Lien has made to the KMT.

In light of all this uncritical loyalty being aimed at Lien Chan recently, it’s worth noting what those “significant contributions” might be. Here’s my list:

• Coming a distant 3rd in the 2000 presidential election – first KMT candidate to lose the presidency.
• A big loss in the 2001 legislative elections – for the first time the KMT no longer had an absolute majority, and was no longer the largest party.
• Losing the 2004 presidential election – after setting up an ‘unbeatable’ ticket with James Soong.
• Better than expected performance in the 2004 legislative elections. Still not the largest party though.
• Poor showing in 2005 National Assembly elections.
• Failed to push through a long-talked about merger between the KMT and PFP.
• Led the richest political party in the world (est. US$2.5 billion in 2001) to a point where it had to lay off half its staff, and couldn’t afford to pay the other half
• Led a month-long protest against the 2004 presidential election. Lost 2 separate lawsuits against the election. Still hasn’t acknowledged that he lost.
• Went on a trip to China. Shook hands with someone famous.

As you might guess, I’m not a big fan of Lien Chan. I believe it will be an unmitigated disaster for the KMT (and so also Taiwan) if he stays on as chairman. It would alienate Ma and his supporters, remove any chance for serious reform in the KMT for the next 4 years, and ensure the KMT continues its petty-minded obstructionist behaviour. In other words, I fully expect Lien Chan to decide to stand again and win.