So much for it being a close race. Ma Ying-jeou has become the next chairman of the Koumintang(KMT) by scoring a resounding victory in his race against Wang Jin-pyng – with over 70% of the vote. Landslide is actually much too weak a word. While he had a lead in the polls, noone was predicting such a one-sided result. It will take a while for the ramifications of this to become clear, but here are some initial thoughts:
- With such huge support, Ma has a great opportunity to reform the KMT. The KMT ‘old guard’ (headed by Lien Chan) were always going to resist change (I had posted before questioning how much freedom the new leader would really have), but this should give Ma the power to push through reforms despite their resistance.
- Even for the KMT it’s not who supports you that matters, it’s how many support you. Wang had the overwhelming support of senior KMT members (and a videotaped message from James Soong, the head of the PFP), but it meant very little in the final analysis. Democracy has truly arrived for the KMT.
- There must be big question marks over the future for Wang (and his allies) now. In 2008, the legislature will be halved in size, and you can be sure it’ll be Wang’s supporters who will be most nervous about losing their jobs.
- This will answer a lot of questions about how popular Ma is outside of Taipei (his powerbase). Of course, a poll of KMT members is different to a presidential election, but the fact that he even beat Wang on his home turf of Kaohsiung means Ma can claim to be the most popular KMT member in all regions of Taiwan.
- Why did noone predict this result? The polls in Taiwan are usually fairly accurate in predicting results – but everyone was surprised by this one.
It will be very interesting to see what the fallout is from this one, but from my perspective (that the KMT is in serious need of reform) this is a big and unexpected step forward for the KMT. I’ll post more when the dust settles a bit.
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Hi, I don’t know anything about these guys – where do they fall on the “One China” policy – or, to put it more bluntly – will they vote reunification or succession if the time comes? Would they send troops to defend Taiwan the case of an invasion?
Both candidates promised to follow Lien Chan’s line of following the ‘one china’ principle (i.e. there is only one china, taiwan is part of it, and it’s name is the Republic of China). Beyond that, it’s a bit hard to say as they’ve both been emphasising their loyalty to the existing party line … any further analysis is usually based on stereotypes: Ma is a ‘mainlander’ (born in HK) so must be a strong supporter reunification, while Wang is ‘native’ so must be a closet independence-seeker; I’m a bit suspicious of this.
I suspect that they’re both a bit more pragmatic on the issue: they’ll adjust their position based on popular support in Taiwan, rather than take an absolute position
Did you see this article in the China Times?
http://news.chinatimes.com/Chinatimes/newslist/newslist-content/0,3546,110501+112005071700009,00.html
The mainland still wants to invite Wang Jinping, even though Wang just got his ass handed to him.
You’ve almost got to think that their desire to associate with Taiwan’s losers (Lian, James Soong, the New Party) is some sneaky way to undermine Taiwan’s democracy, huh?
Wayne – I guess their view is “who cares about democratic election results?”. Hu Jintao has also sent his congratulations to Ma, so it’s not *only* losers that they want to talk to 🙂
However, given that even the New Party can get the red carpet treatment, I have been wondering whether I should should hold a press conference to announce my support for reunification just to see if i’d get an invitation from Hu too!
Ma Ying Jeou scares the hell out of me. His mismanagement of Taipei notwithstanding, his spying activities on Taiwanese democracy fighters during his stint at Harvard should be taught in Taiwanese History classes. Besides, does anyone remember that Ma was the one who was vehemently against the establishment of the 228 Museum, anymore? This guy wants to cover up Taiwanese history… I will seriously consider burning my Taiwanese passport if this imbecile ever gets elected as President. *sigh* OK. Of course I won’t burn my passport for this imbecile. But I am mad as hell.
Jen, I know there are a lot of people who feel the same as you – but I must admit I don’t really see why. For me, he’s a massive step forward compared to the out-of-touch earlier generation of KMT leaders (for example, if he were to lose the 2008 election by 0.1% I couldn’t see him staging such ridiculous protests as those last year).I’ve mentioned before that I’d actually prefer to see Wang as the KMT presidential candidate as he would be much more likely to unite Taiwan, but I think Ma will be a good head of the KMT.
Incidentally, I’ve heard the comments about him spying at Harvard before – but is there any evidence to back them up? (And how does he compare to any other KMT member studying in the US at that time?)
David, I remember reading about his stint at Harvard at the FAPA (www.fapa.org) and WUFI (http://www.wufi.org/english.html) sites a long time ago. It has also been mentioned in the Taipei Times, I think. I tried to find it again but FAPA’s reorganised the site so I was unsuccessful… and Wufu doesn’t have search function atm. I’ll try to find the article in question when I have a bit more spare time.
I don’t think Ma was too different to other KMT members studying in the US at the time, no. But what he did (and indeed, I can very well believe it – not in the least because I know of first-hand witness accounts), was inexcusable. That aside, when he was trying to cover-up the 228 incident and when he and his then Cultural Minister (Lung Ying-Tai) tried so very hard to block the establishment of the 228 Museum, he lost all credibility in my book.
But yes, you’re absolutely right. For KMT at least, Ma is a godsend, perhaps. He is ‘clean’ and goodness knows even some of the Pan-Greens can learn a lesson or two from him. Yet, I guess many Taiwanese like myself worry about the prospects of Ma becoming President one day. Granted, his ability to garner votes from the Taiwanese still remains to be tested and, I suppose I am just a tad paranoid. What irks me mainly is the fact that he is pro-unification, of course. =D But… until Taiwan changes its Constitution, I suppose there’s little we can do to prevent non-Taiwan-born citizens running for President.
Anyway, do excuse the incoherence. Still a little shocked by Ma’s win…
Btw, great site you have here. It’s been a pleasure.
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