12.13.05
Waiting for the PFP to die
Yesterday evening saw a much-heralded meeting between the leaders of the two main pan-Blue parties KMT Chairman Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) and PFP Chairman James Soong (宋楚瑜), at which many analysts were expecting talk of a merger. As it turned out there was little of any substance to announce:
Emerging from their closed-door meeting at the Armed Forces Hall of Heroes, the two chairmen said they exchanged views on problems of mutual concern in a “very friendly atmosphere” and reached agreement on better cooperation.
The areas of cooperation were nothing new (investigating DPP scandals, opposing various DPP proposals, work towards direct links with China), but the most interesting point was the failure to talk at all about a merger (Ma briefly mentioned that a merger was ‘a possibility’ while Soong didn’t say anything). Indeed, there was talk about coordinating nominations for elections in 2006 and 2007, which implies the two parties may stay separate for the next couple of years. To see why this is important, you need to consider the parlous state the PFP is in.
A brief history of the PFP
The PFP was founded in 2000 in the aftermath of the presidential elections - James Soong ran as an independent in that election, and after massively out-performing the KMT incumbent Lien Chan founded the PFP as a pro-China alternative to the KMT. An impressive showing in the legislative elections the following year confirmed its position as a serious political party. The KMT were forced to work with the PFP to ensure an overall majority in the legislature, and for a while the PFP was considered an equal partner to the KMT. However, things went badly wrong in 2004 - the presidential election loss was followed by a disasterous failure in the legislative election. Add to that an almost anonymous showing in the recent local elections, and suddenly a rising power in Taiwanese politics had turned into a fading party with an over-the-hill leader.
However, the killer blow for the PFP was the constitutional reform which passed in June. The new way that the legislature will be elected in 2007 - with only one candidate elected in each district - will make it almost impossible for a small party like the PFP to gain many seats (especially since there is no substantive difference between the PFP and the KMT platforms).
As a party, the PFP only has one thing going in its favour: it holds the balance of power in the legislature. Although it naturally allies with the KMT to give the pan-Blue side a majority, a combined DPP-PFP would also have a majority. So as long as the PFP can threaten to vote with the DPP on their KMT asset stripping bill, the KMT can’t afford to ignore Soong’s party.
An interesting challenge for Ma
So Soong, armed with his one trump card, is trying to negotiate his (and possibly his parties) political future. How Ma Ying-jeou handles this will be informative, as it’s his first real political challenge as KMT head[*] - and one of the biggest question marks over Ma is whether he’s smart enough to handle tough negotiations like this one. Handle it well, and he’ll convince more people that he’s got what it takes to lead a country, but muck it up and people may start questioning how much substance there is behind all his style.
The sensible course for the KMT to take over the PFP is just to wait for them to fade away: support a couple of their pet issues (a few more unconstitutional ‘truth commissions’, a bit more obstruction over the arms budget) to ensure there’s no outright war between the two camps, and just wait until the next legislative elections - at which point the PFP can almost be guaranteed to disappear.
The results from this meeting certainly implies that this is Ma’s strategy: rumblings over the last few months that Soong wants a run at Taipei mayor were explicitly ignored at this meeting (”We’re not discussing matters regarding our personal interests” was the official line), and the lack of serious outcome from this meeting means that the KMT have ensured PFP cooperation for a bit longer without any concessions.
Time is running out for the PFP - each day that passes moves them a little bit closer to becoming the ‘new New Party’.
* By ‘political’ I mean the negotiation, deal-making, and policy side of things. The whole ‘electioneering’ thing is something that noone has ever doubted Ma’s ability in - as confirmed by recent election results.
sun bin said,
December 14, 2005 at 1:36 am
as i recall, PFP was formed when LTH was still leading KMT. so it is ‘bluer’ than KMT.
therefore, ideologically, it is further apart from DPP than KMT is, which makes less likely a DPP-PFP cooperation.
but what do i know, these people are more driven by their own interests.
i thought soong and lien are similar people, both from the old guards of KMT. the fact that PFP was not marginalized (or KMT was not) after LTH left was only because neither one of them have the charisma to take over the other.
soong missed out on the opportunity to merge when he still had a lot of chips on table. now it is time for him to fold the party and retire.
frankly, KMT does not need 2 waisheng leaders.
Ma chose the right strategy, as you said. in fact, Ma does not have any choice, because Ma has to defend in intra-democracy he has streneously fought for, taking PFP’s power sharing request will just crush that. that is why seeking ‘common value and principle’ was the prerequisite Ma put on the table.
—
are you going to write about annette lu. i thought her star is rising
David said,
December 14, 2005 at 10:38 am
sun bin - the PFP was actually formed on the same day that LTH resigned as KMT head (after the election). Not for idealogical differences with the KMT, but purely because Soong had burnt his bridges with the KMT (in the short term) and needed a party behind him. However, you’re right that they are, on average, blue-er than the KMT.
The only PFP-DPP cooperation I was suggesting was in forcing the KMT to give up their ‘illegal assets’, which would be in both parties interests - but it would be an extreme measure for the PFP. More useful as a threat than an action.
You’re half wrong about the charisma thing though: Soong was a very popular politician, and the PFP survived on his charisma. Of course Lien had none, and they survive on their money and entrenched support. I agree that Soong missed out - but he was assuming both a win in the presidential and a better showing in the legislative election …
As for Annette Lu … I’m not sure where to start!
sun bin said,
December 14, 2005 at 12:39 pm
ahh…my mistake. so in soong’s first election he stood at ‘independent candidate’…
Wolf Reinhold said,
December 14, 2005 at 5:06 pm
The PFP is made up of low class thugs. The KMT doesn’t give a shit about the ideology, whatever that may be, of the PFP — they just want its voter pool.
Annette Lu’s star is rising? You must mean her interplanetary transport device. I think she is having trouble finding eyeball replacement parts for her species here on earth.
Simon World said,
December 17, 2005 at 6:20 pm
. Apparently even some kids have too much time on their hands. Simon Hunt on China’s changing economic priorities and what the impact will be. A Chinese court pardons a bra burglar. Waiting for Taiwan’sPFP to die. And the KMT is on the move. 60% of Taiwanese fake orgasms…not always when men are present, either. The LA Times editorialises on China’s PR problem. Japanese Kamikaze pilots vs. today’s human bombs
Terence said,
June 12, 2006 at 3:25 pm
the prp’s ideology is useless.James soong should just retire from politics..his political career is over and He shouldn’t be running for any elections.Now he is staging railles to create political chaos in Taiwan.
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