12.29.05
Taiwanese democracy and Chinese unification
This raises a very interesting issue: if the island is annexed by Beijing, how can China exist half-free and half-slave? China will either be required to crush the island’s democracy — which might have grave international and internal repercussions — or else it will have to live with “one country, two systems.” And when ordinary Chinese visit Taiwan and see how much different things are here than there…
Be careful what you wish for, eh? Perhaps our democracy here is a better insurance against annexation than we think.
While I’m a big fan of the ever-deepening acceptance of democracy in Taiwan, and accept that China has problems with the idea of democracy on their doorstep (let alone in their own country), I have a few problems with Michael’s thesis:
- China currently seems quite happy to live with the “One country, two systems” concept. Plenty of mainlanders have visited Hong Kong, and (as far as I’m aware) noone in Shanghai is clamoring for their own ‘Basic Law’. I doubt this would be any different for Taiwan.
- If we’re talking ‘annexation’ rather than peaceful reunification, then China won’t be too backwards in enforcing their vision on the Taiwanese. In particular they could impose martial law until the Taiwanese are ‘ready’ for proper Chinese democracy (that worked for the KMT for 40+ years), or just declare separatist activities illegal (thus outlawing the DPP & TSU). Back to the fig-leaf democracy days of the KMT plus a few token ‘tangwai’.
- If there is some form of peaceful unification, then one of the two main parties would have lost their main platform. In this situation, it’s debatable whether the DPP could remain a serious contender for power in Taiwan - there’s a pretty good chance that the KMT and CCP could coordinate to marginalise everyone else. Would Beijing really care if the DPP commanded 30% of the legislature and spent all their time railling against the injustice of it all?
- If anyone can crush a democracy without worrying too much about international reaction, I’m betting that China can. Unless Taiwan can find someone as media-friendly as the Dalai Lama to promote their cause, I’m guessing that international reaction would be at the sub-Tibet level.
Further thoughts at Peking Duck, MeiZhongTai, and Asiapundit
STOP George said,
January 2, 2006 at 12:25 pm
I agree. This is the one of the singlemost current priorities for Taiwan. Worldwide Public Relations. The world must understand that a free democratic and independent Taiwan is being bullied by a dictatorial superpower here. The world must understand that the Taiwanese society is distinctly different from Chinese society. The world must understand that China is not progressing towards greater respect towards human rights for its citizens. The world must understand that it is China that is the aggressor in this conflict.
Any forum or event that helps spread this message to the world should be encouraged.
And I am encouraged to hear President Chen continuing to talk about constitutional reform and strengthening the “official” Taiwanese identity. These actions (if not blocked by the treachorous KMT & PFP) will go far in helping to define Taiwan’s place in the world. These actions will help protect Taiwan from the aggressive momentum from China. Taiwan, more than ever, needs the global community to protect them.
wolf said,
January 2, 2006 at 8:48 pm
A chinese someone said to me today: “Of course we are independant already. But why the hell does Chen have to keep saying it in public all the time? It just makes things worse!”
STOP George said,
January 2, 2006 at 9:36 pm
Wolf: That’s another thing “Taiwanese” have to understand (although your quote was in the context of the Chinese). The status quo is a myth. It is a myth because the status quo is not what the Chinese desire — just take a look at the anti-secession law. Believing that everything will be hunky-dorey if the Taiwanese just leave this issue alone (in the interest of not pissing off China) is a policy which is doomed to failure. That is one reason I feel Taiwan is a lost cause if Ma is elected president.
WC said,
January 10, 2006 at 11:38 pm
Promote world wide public relations… Hmmm… Maybe Taiwanese should get behind the 2020 Olympic bid. Afterall, Chinese Taipei is an equal member of the IOC with PR China
MeiZhongTai said,
August 30, 2006 at 2:37 am
[...] I blogged previously on Taiwan’s Silicon Shield. Michael Turton proposes that Taiwan is defended by its democracy. Whatever one’s opinion of Taiwan’s self-defense capaabilities, it appears that Taiwan is effectively using consonance to its advantage.[N]ot only does every democratic election establish Taiwan as an independent state, but the deeper democracy entrenches, the thornier the problem it presents for the occupation planning.Asiapundit concurs and adds: Taiwan’s rambunctious democracy makes it unlikely that the island could be easily forced back into an authoritarian system. Plus, it strengthens the resolve of allies to come to its defense.Update: Jujuflop and Peking Duck weigh in as well.[Democracy] [Taiwan] Read more! [...]