A belated 新年快樂 to everyone! I’ve been away from a computer for the new year, so I’m a bit late on President Chen’s new year speech. Other blogs have already covered the speech, and the American (over)reaction. The main talking point is that Chen Shui-bian said this:

There are people urging that the National Unification Council and its guidelines be abolished. I think now is the appropriate time we must seriously consider it, take a good look at it.

Given that this Council hasn’t met since 1999, has a budget of NT$1000 (about US$30), the guidelines have been explicitly ignored for 5 years and have no legal force, you’d have thought this wouldn’t be such a big deal. It certainly wouldn’t have any material effect on cross-strait links. However, the big issue is that it Chen promised not to abolish the council in his inauguration speech in 2000 – this was his “4 Noes and 1 without” pledge:

Therefore, as long as the CCP regime has no intention to use military force against Taiwan, I pledge that during my term in office, I will not declare independence, I will not change the national title, I will not push forth the inclusion of the so-called “state-to-state” description in the Constitution, and I will not promote a referendum to change the status quo in regard to the question of independence or unification. Furthermore, there is no question of abolishing the Guidelines for National Unification and the National Unification Council.

So, what is Chen doing? Opinions range from “The CCP clearly has an intention to use military force, so he’s not breaking his promise” (from the Green side of the aisle), to “He’s a liar, mad and trying to start a war” (from the Blue side, and unfortunately the US).

An alternative is that he’s been planning this since his inauguration in 2004, and it doesn’t involve breaking his pledge at all – but does involve breaking most people’s understanding of that pledge (an action which is bound to appeal to the lawyer in Chen). Here’s President Chen Shui-bian 2nd inauguration speech in May 2004 where he reaffirmed his promise:

Today I would like to reaffirm the promises and principles set forth in my inaugural speech in 2000. Those commitments have been honored–they have not changed over the past four years, nor will they change in the next four years. Upon this foundation, my next step will be to invite both the governing and opposition parties, in conjunction with representatives from various walks of the society, to participate in the establishment of a “Committee for Cross-Strait Peace and Development,” combining the collective insight and wisdom of all parties and our citizenry, to draft the “Guidelines for Cross-Strait Peace and Development.” The goal will be to pave the way for formulating a new relationship of cross-strait peace, stability and sustainable development.

Now here’s the question: how do you build upon the foundation of promising not to abolish the National Unification Council by establishing a Committee for Cross-Strait Peace and Development, and not abolish the Guidelines for National Unification while drafting Guidelines for Cross-Strait Peace and Development? Simple. You rename the NUC as the ‘Committee for Cross-Strait Peace and Development’ and then update the guidelines too. Does this break his 2000 promises? Technically, no. It even (arguably) fits in with the spirit of his 2004 promise.

Of course, this is pure speculation. But don’t be too surprised if Chen clarifies his statement by just saying he wants to update the Council and the Guidelines to better reflect the Status Quo …