06.29.06
The pan-Blue struggle
One of the more interesting subtexts of the recent recall saga was the battle for influence between the leaders of the two pan-Blue parties - Ma Ying-jeou (head of the KMT) and James Soong (head of the PFP). If you accept that the recall process was a purely political power play (as I believe it was), then the roles of its leaders can be analysed like this:
- Soong the crusader. Soong knows that his party is close to death - and he needs something dramatic to reinvigorate his career. Hence his crusade to remove Chen Shui-bian from office. Whether it succeeds or not (or had any chance of succeeding) is secondary to Soong’s main purpose, which is to get into the public eye again with his noble-minded fight for truth, justice and democracy.
- Ma: the leader is led. When Soong first championed the recall, Ma didn’t immediately follow. It was only when he saw Soong gaining some momentum that he jumped in too. Was he just following the polls? Or was he worried about a split in the pan-Blue alliance? I believe that Ma calculated that the risk of supporting Soong and the recall was much less than the risk of opposing it.
Ma’s alternate path
If Ma had stood by his principles and opposed the recall, it could have got very messy for him indeed. The PFP would have gone ahead with the recall proposal anyway leaving the KMT legislators with two options: disobey their chairman and support the recall, or obey him and vote to protect Chen Shui-bian. Either way, Ma and the KMT would quickly haemmorage support of hardliners to the PFP - and a near-dead party would be well on the road to recovery.
A resurgent PFP is probably as much of a headache for Ma as a resurgent DPP would be, so Ma took the easy option: support the recall and hope it doesn’t damage his image too much.
The aftermath
Soong got the attention he craved, and Ma’s standing as a leader took a hit. Recent poll results have showed Ma’s rating is steadily dropping - his honeymoon period after becoming KMT Chairman is definitely over. However, Ma will console himself with the fact that he has (so far) kept the pan-Blue alliance together, and didn’t give anyone a reason to switch to the PFP. Indeed, he has consolidated his power on the pan-Blue side:
Two People First Party (PFP) legislators yesterday said they would leave the party and join the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) for the next legislative session, which starts in September.
They said they had decided to do so in a bid to meet their supporters’ expectations.
The news broke yesterday as the KMT and PFP, which jointly pushed for a motion to recall the president in the legislature, seemed to take different lines in the aftermath of the recall vote.
Of course, they both said that the move had nothing to do with the recall vote - but would they have completed their move if Ma had blocked a recall? I doubt it. Overnight, James Soong has lost another 10% of his power in the legislature.
So, perhaps this recall can be seen as just another step in the Jimmy Soong roadshow: each time he makes a grab for power he ends up damaging his own side while slowly watching his support and influence drain away.
Michael Turton said,
June 29, 2006 at 8:16 pm
Is it my mistake, or have you posted twice on the same day? I think maybe I’ve been getting too much sun…
Great stuff, as always.
Miichael
David said,
June 30, 2006 at 11:02 am
Yes indeed! 2 posts in a day - that’d be a slow news day for you wouldn’t it?
Actually, it’s a sure sign i’ve got real work which I’m desperately trying to avoid doing …
Politics from Taiwan » Blues shooting themselves in the feet? said,
July 4, 2006 at 11:46 am
[...] A few days ago, I mentioned two PFP politicians moving back to the KMT. It now seems that the local chapter of the KMT is blocking Shen Chih-hwei’s application to rejoin the party. Although her move fits in perfectly with the KMT’s plan to hollow out the PFP until there’s noone left, local rivalries are spoiling their plans. Shen ran against Jason Hu for mayor of Taichung, and the local members aren’t ready to forgive her for that. The tensions under the surface between returning PFP politicians and their KMT counterparts are only going to get worse as we get closer to legislative election where the contest for nominations by your party will be fierce. [...]
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