Well, the carnival of idiots (otherwise known as the drive to recall Chen Shui-bian) is well underway, but of limited interest and importance to me. Angry politicians have shouted, incensed supporters have screamed, but it hasn’t changed the fact that the recall drive will fail.

However, the KMTs follow up action of a no-confidence vote in the Executive Yuan is still likely to happen. As I wrote last week, this is infinitely more serious than the recall drive – and the problems are only now starting to be aired properly in the press. The head of the CEC yesterday gave his view on what would happen if the Legislature was dissolved, and new elections were required:

CEC Chairman Chang Cheng-hsiung (張政雄) said that if a no-confidence vote toppled the Cabinet and the president then decided to dissolve the legislature and hold snap elections, new legislative districts drawn up by the CEC should be used in that election — even if the plan had not received legislative approval.

An election without legally approved districts? Well, it would prove right all those who claim that Taiwanese democracy is a joke, I suppose. Unfortunately, it seems to be about the only option available to the CEC.

Interpreting the constitution

When questioning the CEC Chairman various legislators tried to argue for using the old legislative election rules.

KMT Legislator Lee Ching-hua (李慶華) questioned Chang on the issue, noting that the constitutional amendment as written takes effect with the Seventh Legislature while a new election would be held before the term of the Sixth Legislature had expired.

PFP legislators Feng Ting-kuo (馮定國) and Chang Hsien-yao (張顯耀) took issue with Chang’s view, arguing that the current electoral system should continue to be applied if voting districts for the new electoral system had yet to be approved.

Feng and Chang seem to be arguing that the Constitution should just be ignored when inconvenient, which is an obviously moronic argument, while Lee Ching-hua’s argument does at least merit analysis. Unfortunately for Lee, the answer is pretty obvious. Here are the relevant recent constitutional ammendments:

[From Article 2] Following the dissolution of the Legislative Yuan, an election for legislators shall be held within 60 days. The new Legislative Yuan shall convene of its own accord within ten days after the results of the said election have been confirmed, and the term of the said Legislative Yuan shall be reckoned from that date.

[From Article 4] Beginning with the Seventh Legislative Yuan, the Legislative Yuan shall have 113 members, who shall serve a term of four years, which is renewable after re-election.

From the highlighted passages, it is clear that any election would be for a completely new legislature which would have a full 4-year term. In other words, it’s not an ‘extension’ of the sixth legislature in any way, and so can only be the seventh legislature. So the CEC’s analysis is correct, and the new rules apply. However, it doesn’t hurt to have a constitutional ruling on this (as requested by the legislators).

Potential Chaos

So, we have the prospect of legislative elections of dubious legality, fought between contestants who will no doubt be complaining loudly about the unfairness of the districts used. Add to that the almost inevitable administrative chaos the rushed implementation of these rules will cause. Then we can expect 4 years of demonstrations from the losers about the illegality of the elections. Marvellous.

Potential solutions

There are three ways that this crisis could be avoided:

1. The KMT & DPP legislators could actually agree on the districts, and pass the relevant legislation before any no-confidence vote. However the likelihood of the two sides agreeing on anything at the moment are fairly slim, so this looks unlikely.
2. The KMT could back off from their promised no-confidence vote. Very unlikely to happen.
3. Chen Shui-bian could decide not to dissolve the legislature after the no-confidence vote.

Unfortunately, any decision by Chen not to dissolve the legislature will no doubt be painted as cowardice by the pan-Blues – indeed KMT spokeswoman Cheng Li-wen has already said that the KMT will continue to pass no-confidence votes in any new Executive Yuan president that Chen appoints until Chen does dissolve the legislature.

When you realise that Chen Shui-bian is all that’s standing between Taiwan and real legislative chaos, you know you’re in pretty dire straits …

Footnote: Of course, it should be noted that the no-confidence vote that is being planned is actually a vote against Su Tseng Chang and his cabinet. Given that Su is fairly popular at the moment, and has been carefully avoiding getting involved in the whole recall business and instead concentrated on running the country, a no-confidence vote against him is a dangerous move. As I’ve mentioned before, there is a distincy possibility that the whole recall/no-confidence movement could backfire on the KMT.