06.12.06
No-confidence in democracy
Anyone who watches Taiwanese democracy will have a little bit of trouble taking Taiwanese Legislators seriously - so the latest threat to recall President Chen could just be seen as politicians doing what politicians do (i.e. ranting in front of a TV camera) … after all it’s been a whole 3 months since the pan-Blue opposition announced they would recall Chen.
However, this time there’s a rather worrying possibility. If the opposition follow through with their threat to start recall proceedings, which will of course fail, they are threatening a vote of no-confidence in a different president, president of the Executive Yuan Premier Su Tseng-chang (蘇貞昌). If this happens, then Su will probably ask President Chen to dissolve the Legislative Yuan. And this is where the problems start.
Legislative Yuan elections: What are the rules?
Under last year’s constitutional reform, the rules for the next LY have been dramatically altered. There’s a different voting method, the number of legislators has been reduced, and the districts need to be redefined. The details of what the districts are, and how the election should be held thus need to be updated, and voted into law. So, the current laws relating to election are no longer valid and the legislative yuan needs to vote through updates to these laws - but they won’t be able to do this if the legislature has been dissolved. Or in other words, if the legislature were to be dissolved:
Taiwan can’t hold LY elections until the laws are updated, but the laws can’t be updated until the LY elections are held.
What would happen then is anyone’s guess - the legislature would join the Control Yuan and the Examination Yuan in limbo with no obvious solution. The phrase ‘constitutional crisis’ might be a bit of an understatement at that point.
Incidentally, it is the job of the Central Election Committee to propose the new rules and districts for elections. They have (I believe) already done their job - but the Legislature has been too busy fighting and eating proposed legislation to get round to reviewing and voting on the proposals.
Disclaimer: This post is done after a complete 3-week holiday from Taiwanese politics and while fighting jetlag - so apologies if this issue has already been discussed (or indeed solved!) already.
wolf reinhold said,
June 12, 2006 at 10:07 pm
The Blues will back off once they realize that ousting Chen means putting our favorite martian Annette in office….
The View from Taiwan said,
June 13, 2006 at 3:17 pm
on a looming constitutional crisis
Terence said,
June 13, 2006 at 9:58 pm
by recalling the president,it would mean undermining Taiwan’s democracy as the blue’s are indeed “power-grabbing” for pwer.Why are they so determined to recall the president in the firstr place when there are other more urgent task needed to be done?Such as the flood relief bills and improving the livelihood?
The blues knows nothing but to oppose and oppose without thinking if their actions benefit Taiwan.Why go so much trouble staging railles against an innocent President who has yet to provew if the allegations were really true?
They gain little but cause more political and economic problems.
I think it doesn’t make any difference on who takes over the presidential posts.Annette Lu,though unpopular within the party has the potential to govern Taiwan,given her political experience.
However,the recall would seriously humiliate Taiwan’s democratic elected president who has yet to complete his term.
Michael Turton said,
June 13, 2006 at 11:17 pm
Yeesh. That’s the scariest thing I have ever read. Is the scenario completed when Premier Wang Jin-pyng calls for China to restore order?
sun bin said,
June 14, 2006 at 3:16 am
does nixon’s resignation deeply humiliated american democracy?
sun bin said,
June 14, 2006 at 3:21 am
bian might probably be not guilty. but even Kim dae-jung had to resign when his son was convicted. would bian does this if chao is convicted?
(until then, i am with Ma’s earlier view of not-acting)
btw, why cannot annette lu take over? she was democratically elected.
sun bin said,
June 14, 2006 at 7:22 am
more on DPP’s secret weapon
關鍵時刻的宋楚瑜
宋楚瑜上周末現身凱達格蘭大道，帶領泛藍群眾一起高呼阿扁下台，群情沸騰的景像彷彿319的抗爭重現。久違的宋主席仍是泛藍支持者的寄託。一旁晾著的馬英九大概百味雜陳，對照起激越的宋主席，馬主席倒比較像319時，一樣是站在宋旁邊的連主席。 宋主席走入群眾時，民眾激動地跪地陳情，「宋省長」與民眾彷彿又找回彼此最溫暖的回憶。
多次助阿扁脫困
其實，要激動感謝宋楚瑜的，不只是泛藍支持者，還有民進黨和陳總統。因為從2000年到2006年，每每當阿扁陷入危機，宋主席都會適時出現，扭轉局勢，讓阿扁脫困。
2000年宋楚瑜堅持競選，讓阿扁在三強鼎立中險勝，2004年他扮演319急先鋒的角色，雖然紓解了泛藍群眾長期壓抑的情緒，但好戲拖棚，也會引發觀眾厭倦，國民黨其實相當了解箇中眉角，卻需被動演完全場。後來的扁宋會雖然雙方互有得失，但也算暗助阿扁的義行之一。
這次，宋主席在台上高呼罷免，郝龍斌只能尷尬地擠到馬英九旁邊，分享一點鏡頭。接著他到立法院推動罷免，馬英九跟著團團轉。宋楚瑜再度找到自己的舞台。
宋楚瑜的賣力演出，使民進黨和泛綠基層找到再次集結的動能。民進黨的台北選情在失望中突然發現希望。阿扁也立刻找到暫時躲避暴風雨的港口。
宋楚瑜以親民黨主席身分，在關鍵時刻，發揮關鍵力量，對他自己和對民進黨都是如此，只是這種力量必須倒過來看而已。
江春男
David said,
June 14, 2006 at 2:13 pm
Hey Wolf - glad to see you back! Taiwan politics is as addictive as any bad soap isn’t it?
Sun Bin - I’ve been trying to decide myself whether this is a politically good or bad move for the blues, but I think the ‘Jimmy Soong, secret agent’ point of view has convinced me
Michael Turton said,
June 14, 2006 at 4:08 pm
does nixon’s resignation deeply humiliated american democracy?
No sun, but the difference is that in the case of Nixon,
(1) the people who made him resign were SUPPORTING the idea of democracy, the people who want Chen out are ATTACKING the idea of democracy
(2) Nixon committed actual crimes, Chen has not committed any crimes
Big diff betweent the two cases. In the Chen case, the corrupt are the accusers, in the Nixon case, they were the accused.
Michael
Michael Turton said,
June 14, 2006 at 4:12 pm
[quote]I’ve been trying to decide myself whether this is a politically good or bad move for the blues, [/quote]
It depends what their long-term goals are.
wolf reinhold said,
June 16, 2006 at 8:42 pm
“Hey Wolf - glad to see you back! Taiwan politics is as addictive as any bad soap isn’t it?”
No, not back, but just touching base from Samui. Noticed a wire report on the thing in the Bangkok Post.
Are any of these allegations of misconducet by the in-law and the missus grounded in fact?
David said,
June 19, 2006 at 5:49 pm
“Are any of these allegations of misconducet by the in-law and the missus grounded in fact?”
Difficult to say: The son-in-law looks as though it’s real (he’s been arrested but not yet tried/convicted, so he may still get off), but the allegations against CSBs wife are a bit more nebulous. The ‘proof’ is good enough for Chou Yi though, so it must be true
Sun Bin said,
June 21, 2006 at 7:14 am
seems that the descendants of Sun Zi and followers in Taiwan know this very well. As an illustration, there are two blogs in Taiwan that got the essence of Sun Zi. —- Background (Also here) While Jujuflop pointed out the potential ‘legal’ mess in anon-confidence vote in Taiwan, there has been more innovative solutions proposed around the internet. Before we go into it, let’s clarify a few minor points Let’s note Chen himself is not guilty nor even charged at this point. Chances are that he is clean himself.
Politics from Taiwan » Update on no-confidence vote said,
June 21, 2006 at 3:44 pm
[...] However, the KMTs follow up action of a no-confidence vote in the Executive Yuan is still likely to happen. As I wrote last week, this is infinitely more serious than the recall drive - and the problems are only now starting to be aired properly in the press. The head of the CEC yesterday gave his view on what would happen if the Legislature was dissolved, and new elections were required: CEC Chairman Chang Cheng-hsiung (張政雄) said that if a no-confidence vote toppled the Cabinet and the president then decided to dissolve the legislature and hold snap elections, new legislative districts drawn up by the CEC should be used in that election — even if the plan had not received legislative approval. [...]
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